Los Angeles/DNA (OTE) – For the first time since the Hamas attacks of
three years ago, Israel
is set to go to the polls on October 27 to elect the members of the
26th Knesset. In 2023 the country was in the top group of
‘consolidated democratic states’, according to the 2026 Berggruen
Governance Index (BGI), just as it had been in 2000. However,
according to a new report from governance experts, the wars unleashed
on multiple fronts in rapid succession following the Hamas attacks
launched from Gaza have changed Israel politically, economically, and
socially.
The report ‘Israeli Governance Performance: The 2026 Elections,
Democracy and Future Scenarios’ was produced by researchers at the
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based
Berggruen Institute, and Berlin’s Hertie School.
The ongoing election campaign, which never stopped despite the
longest war in Israel’s history, is about to conclude with voting at
the ballot box, in what the entire population is experiencing as an
existential moment.
The issues raised by the parties and candidates are all domestic:
primarily the establishment of a commission to investigate
responsibility for the events of October 7, 2023, the conclusion of
the political career of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is
still on trial for corruption and fraud in a case that has been
ongoing for ten years, and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox
students.
Political debate is characterized by extreme polarization
The election narrative has been no-holds-barred, with significant
involvement of the Israeli media, which has not stopped providing
almost daily analysis of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s responsibility
for failing to prevent the attacks of three years ago and of the
information he is alleged to have received prior to ‘Black Saturday’.
The political debate in the age of social media has been
characterized by extreme polarization, with vitriolic attacks by
candidates on each other.
This election is completely different from previous ones. “The
main competing factions sit largely on the center-right and right,
with left-leaning and secular Labor Zionism—the dominant ideology for
Israel’s first several decades—all but eradicated as a political
force,” as the new report highlights. Consequently, “the outcome will
largely determine which type of right-wing ideology prevails, rather
than offering a choice between conservatism and leftism or
liberalism.”
Old players have entered the fray, such as former generals and
former prime ministers, yet the political landscape remains centered
on one figure, the country’s longest-serving premier, Benjamin
Netanyahu. On one side are the steadfast ‘Bibists’, on the other is
the ‘Anyone but Bibi’ camp. The divide is between those willing to
serve in a government with the current Prime Minister and those for
whom his name is a red line.
No clear favorite in opinion polls
Opinion polls suggest a political stalemate, with neither side
securing the minimum 61 seats in the Knesset needed to form a
government. Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, is set to secure
23 seats with his party, while Netanyahu’s Likud is set to take 21,
according to the latest surveys. Among the voters are 2.3 million
Arabs holding Israeli citizenship, representing 21 percent of the
population.
As the UCLA report notes, „the stakes are very high“. The
elections are widely considered decisive in determining whether
Israel will continue to be „the only democracy in the Middle East“ or
slide further towards being an „illiberal democracy“.
“The question of Israel’s democratic trajectory, however, now
sits inside a wider governance crisis”, the report reads. Studies
have identified signs of deterioration in recent years. “Israel is
increasingly isolated. This includes the ongoing case brought by
South Africa at the International Court of Justice, International
Criminal Court arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Defense
Minister Yoav Gallant, and expanding European sanctions on West Bank
settlement goods,” the researchers write.
The report argues that the shift to the right could undermine
democratic accountability, and a state of permanent military
mobilization could impair the capability of the State. Diplomatic
isolation and a brain drain may reduce the ability to provide public
goods and services. Indeed, calling up reservists removes productive
labor from the civilian economy, shrinking the tax base and limiting
potential participation in innovative sectors.
Brain drain as a problem for the country
A significant related risk is precisely that of the brain drain.
One of Israel’s key economic advantages is the availability of a
highly skilled workforce. The high-tech sector generates
approximately 17% of GDP and nearly 60% of exports. „Evidence points
to a sharp increase in the emigration of skilled workers since the
2023 judicial-overhaul crisis and the war“, the report says.
According to the 2026 Berggruen Governance Index, the provision
of public goods and services is the area in which Israel performs
best. The authors of the report note that the isolation following
Israel’s military response to the October 7 attacks (ranging from the
Turkish trade embargo and the halt of the process of normalization
with Saudi Arabia to a decline in European and American public
support) entails increasingly high economic costs.
“In the medium run, Israel cannot remain militarily dominant,
diplomatically isolated, and prosperous simultaneously”, the report
concludes. Despite initiatives like the Abraham Accords, military
superiority has not secured Israel’s acceptance within the region.
Elections will not resolve these issues. The vote is likely to affect
only some of these challenges, while political deadlock may well be
the most probable outcome.
The full report, ‘Israeli Governance Performance: The 2026
Elections, Democracy and Future Scenarios for Palestine’ can be
downloaded here:
https://ucla.box.com/shared/static/46lqkqifrmb95k4f7xuk22rhq6d1qnbx.-
pdf
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